Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Options (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?

The first 2 rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have actually been a genuine reward. Now, only two groups stay. Tonight, the very first of a historic matchup pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces begins at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).

It is a historical matchup, as it is the very first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league's history. It began with a single national championship in the league's inaugural season in 1997, broadened to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the past 20 seasons.

Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game champion series. And what a time for its beginning, as the quality of basketball in the routine season and in the postseason has actually been exceptional.

The Mercury and Aces have been a huge part of that, and both groups have actually earned their place in the championship series.

After winning 27 games in the regular season, Phoenix removed in 2015's finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021 and the sixth time total.

The Aces, meanwhile, were mired in mediocrity for 2 and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not just did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after surviving being required to the max by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are looking to liquidate a rip-roaring run with a third championship in four seasons.

Who will take a 1-0 lead tonight in Las Vegas? Read on for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 prediction and finest bets and get the very best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.

Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends

- The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, including 6-6 SU and ATS as a roadway underdog.
- Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of 5 or less points.
- The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury's road video games this season.
- The under has struck in Phoenix's last three video games.
- Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when favored by 5 or less points.
- The under is 7-3 in the Aces' last ten home games, including 3 of their five home video games in the playoffs.

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Options

Prediction: Aces to win

In the first 2 rounds and 6 series in this year's playoffs, 4 groups lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.

Two of those come from the Mercury, who went down 1-0 versus both the Liberty and Lynx and returned to advance. Another comes from the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.

So, whoever loses tonight should not be too disheartened, especially with the expansion to a seven-game series.

Which team will that be?

Despite lastly putting away the Fever after being pushed to the absolute limitation by an inspired Indiana group, the Aces did show some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.

A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, however they need help if the Aces are to be successful vs. the Mercury in this series.

And as tough as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be even more difficult to dispatch. In the last 3 video games against the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the 4th quarter and overtime, enabling them to get rid of deficits in all three games to stun the No. 1 seed.

That stated, the very first four Mercury vs. Aces matchups this season do merit some factor to consider. Phoenix won the very first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last 3, including an 83-61 thrashing in the most current conference on August 21.

But after such a hard-fought series against the Fever, could the Aces battle tonight vs. the Mercury just like they did in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a draining pipes Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm.

It is possible, however I'm taking them to increase to the celebration tonight.

Mercury vs. Aces Best options

1) Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)

I do think we will see a fairly close video game this night, however if you are backing the Aces, the percentages favor a cover.

Through the very first 2 rounds of the playoffs, only four of 20 games were chosen by 3 or less points. And of the Aces' 37 wins this season, just six have actually been by three or fewer points.

So, if they do win, it will likely be by a minimum of the margin needed to cover the spread.

2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105 at Bovada)

For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to discuss 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists. She did both by some distance, scoring 32 points and adding a penny of dimes and four rebounds.

While her points amount to is a tick lower tonight, the total PRA is a couple of ticks greater, which is not a surprise when Young has actually taped 19 helps in her last 2 games.

I'm off of her points this evening, but I more than happy to stick with her PRA, as the Aces need her to keep rolling to make it through vs. the Mercury. I might see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound video game from her.

Young has actually scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 video games) this season, including 6 times in 8 championship game, but she has yet to score 16+ points in 4 successive video games this season. So, I see boards and helps doing some heavy lifting tonight.

3) Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)

Thomas's high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she struck when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.

But she has scored 17+ points in each of her last five games, consisting of successive 20+ point games to go ahead of and close out the Lynx at home. At these odds, I'm all too delighted to take her to keep it going.

4) Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)

Making the most of value is also at the forefront of this play. Sabally has done this two times against the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.

She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury's three wins over the Lynx and installed 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the preliminary. With this and the truth that she has had 5+ rebounds in 6 of 7 championship game therefore far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is also worth an appearance.

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