The Canadian housing market in June 2025 reflects a nation cautiously stepping out of volatility and into gradual stabilization. Homebuyers and investors across the country have been closely watching for signs of price corrections, rate changes, and buyer activity. From Toronto's dynamic urban pulse to Oakville's upscale market, trends are beginning to crystallize, suggesting a more balanced but still cautious environment.

Canada’s national home price average in June sits around $701,800. That marks a 3.5% decline year-over-year, though certain pockets like the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Oakville are showing more resilience. The month also saw a 3.6% increase in home sales across the country, indicating growing buyer confidence as interest rates begin to ease.

Toronto Market Trends: Modest Recovery in a Segmented Market

Toronto’s real estate market is showing signs of modest recovery after several sluggish quarters. The average home price in the city now hovers near $1.146 million. That’s a 0.6% increase over the past month and a nearly 5% rise over the quarter. While these numbers signal cautious optimism, they still remain around 4.5% below the same period last year.

Inventory has improved significantly. A notable uptick in new listings has given buyers more options, reducing the intense competition that once defined the Toronto market. The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts have improved affordability, helping more potential homeowners get approved for mortgages. Still, the cost of living and entry barriers remain high, especially for first-time buyers.

What’s clear is that the Toronto market has become highly segmented. Detached homes and townhouses continue to perform well, especially in family-friendly neighbourhoods. In contrast, condos and high-rise apartments are underperforming, with many investors opting to delay sales or reduce asking prices in a slower rental environment.

Oakville: Premium Market Holding Strong

Oakville continues to be one of Ontario’s strongest-performing real estate markets. The average home price in June 2025 is around $1.422 million. That marks a 2.7% monthly increase and a solid 4% gain over the last quarter. Detached homes have been particularly strong performers, with price increases in the range of 3.5% to 4.3%.

The market is active: listings are up, yet homes are still selling quickly. Median days on market currently sits at just under 30 days, reflecting ongoing demand from affluent buyers and families looking to settle in Oakville’s high-quality neighbourhoods. The town’s combination of good schools, lakefront appeal, and newer subdivisions make it a long-standing favourite for upper-middle-class buyers and retirees.

While the detached segment is thriving, condos and townhomes have seen more muted performance. Some have experienced slight declines of 1% to 4.5% over the past few months, largely due to tighter competition in the mid-range segment. Nevertheless, Oakville’s fundamentals remain solid, with a low unemployment rate and stable local economy.

Mississauga, Brampton, and Surrounding GTA Areas

Beyond Toronto and Oakville, the broader GTA continues to see varied activity depending on location and property type. Mississauga has seen home prices drop by as much as 12% year-over-year. Brampton is also down, but by a smaller margin—around 8%. These corrections are attributed to previous overvaluation, high interest rates earlier in the year, and slowed immigration-driven demand.

That said, both cities are beginning to attract more first-time buyers again. As interest rates drop and mortgage stress tests ease, properties in the $700,000 to $900,000 range are receiving renewed attention. Detached homes on the outskirts and older properties in need of renovation are also getting a second look from value-seeking investors and end users alike.

In Burlington, Milton, and Vaughan, the story is one of stabilization. Prices have corrected mildly but remain relatively stable. These cities are benefiting from their strategic positions near major highways, GO train access, and newer housing stock.

Interest Rates and Buyer Confidence

The Bank of Canada’s recent rate adjustments are a major factor in shaping today’s housing landscape. After raising rates aggressively through 2023 and 2024, the central bank has reversed course in 2025, cutting the overnight rate by 225 basis points year-to-date. This has made mortgages slightly more affordable, increasing buyer confidence.

Fixed-rate mortgage products have also seen reductions, with 5-year rates now hovering between 4.5% and 5.2%, down from highs of over 6%. These changes are enticing hesitant buyers back into the market, especially those with strong credit and steady income.

However, buyer sentiment remains cautious. Uncertainty surrounding global economic factors—such as trade disputes and inflation—continues to weigh on decision-making. Many Canadians remain concerned about job security, rising taxes, and long-term affordability.

Government Policies and Affordable Housing

At both the federal and municipal levels, efforts continue to address Canada’s housing shortage. Programs like the Housing Accelerator Fund and Affordable Housing Initiative are aiming to boost construction, particularly in high-demand cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

In Toronto, Mayor Olivia Chow has launched initiatives to create 25,000 new rent-controlled units over the next decade. These include fast-tracked approvals for mid-rise buildings and incentives for developers to include affordable units in new builds. Whether these policies will shift the affordability crisis remains to be seen, as supply still lags far behind demand.

Rental Market and Investor Landscape

While the buying market is showing signs of stabilization, Canada’s rental market is easing slightly. Average national rents have dropped about 2.3% this spring, now averaging around $2,118 per month. Toronto’s rental market remains one of the most expensive in the country, though vacancy rates have improved slightly in 2025 compared to last year.

Investor sentiment is mixed. The pre-construction condo market, once a hotbed of speculative investment, has cooled significantly. Delays in development, rising construction costs, and tightened financing rules have made many investors cautious. However, detached and semi-detached homes in established neighbourhoods are still viewed as reliable long-term holds.

Outlook for the Second Half of 2025

Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, most analysts expect a soft landing. Price declines are expected to level off as rate cuts continue and inventory improves. Sales volume is likely to rise, especially in mid-priced homes and family neighbourhoods. Luxury markets like Oakville and certain parts of Toronto will likely continue to perform well, supported by strong demand and limited supply.

The wildcards remain inflation, global economic volatility, and construction delays. A sharp rise in unemployment or another wave of trade restrictions could cause further market hesitation. On the flip side, a strong economic rebound and faster housing starts could accelerate recovery.

Conclusion

Canada’s housing market in June 2025 shows promising signs of balance. Toronto is slowly regaining its footing, Oakville remains a luxury stronghold, and more affordable cities like Mississauga and Brampton are beginning to appeal to budget-conscious buyers again. While challenges remain, including affordability and new supply, the overall tone is one of cautious optimism.

For homebuyers, this may be the best opportunity in several years to enter the market. For sellers, especially in premium locations, it remains a good time to list while inventory is still catching up. As always, working with an experienced real estate agent and monitoring local trends is essential to making the right move in today’s market.